Blue Homeland: Turkey’s Zero-Sum Game in the Eastern Mediterranean
By Robert English
In 2006, Turkish military leadership coined the phrase “Blue Homeland” to represent Turkish maritime ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean. “Blue Homeland” refers specifically to the waters in the Mediterranean the Turkish government believes should fall under its control. Turkish ambitions to become a regional powerhouse require a larger maritime footprint for two reasons: energy independence and security. Under existing international law, the UN Convention for the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) defines all parameters for maritime boundaries. However, definitions found in UNCLOS place Turkey in a strategically disadvantaged position compared to its neighbors, and so the “Blue Homeland” doctrine is Turkey’s response and strategy for claiming the waters it needs to gain a strategic edge. Despite the objections from other Mediterranean nations, Turkey is pursuing control over these waters, threatening regional stability.
According to international law, UNCLOS is the sole document defining territorial waters. UNCLOS includes many definitions, but the most important for understanding the “Blue Homeland” doctrine is the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). According to UNCLOS, the EEZ states have “sovereign rights for the purpose of exploiting, conserving, and managing natural resources.” This includes constructing pipelines and exploring or extracting energy sources like natural gas and oil. While Turkey is not a signatory to UNCLOS, UNCLOS is so widely accepted as the norm for maritime law, that it can be considered “Customary International Law,” so it would apply universally. Turkey never signed UNCLOS, since EEZs are extended by each island on behalf of their parent state. In the Aegean Sea, which Turkey shares with Greece, thousands of Greek islands extend an EEZ. By comparison, Turkey controls only a handful of islands off their coastline. The result is an entirely Greek-controlled Aegean Sea, preventing Turkey from having any meaningful maritime control on their western coast. The map below highlights Greek territory in yellow, illustrating how Turkey is contained by these islands.
Should “Blue Homeland” become reality, Turkey would gain a large strategic security advantage, and energy independence might become possible. Turkey currently imports over 90% of its gas and petroleum. In the waters claimed by Turkey, large reserves of underwater natural gas and oil have been discovered. Under existing international law, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt benefit most from exploring and extracting these resources, while Turkey has no claim. In terms of security, Turkey has a long memory of being blocked in by European powers during sieges in the early 20th century. Turkey has been keen to increase its strategic position in recent years, particularly given Turkey’s desire to distance itself from the Syrian Civil War on its border. The UNCLOS status quo leaves Turkey in a vulnerable position on both energy and security. Claiming the waters defined by “Blue Homeland” is Turkey’s ongoing strategy to improve their position on both of these issues.
“Blue Homeland” is a significant departure from the current maritime norms, and the consequences amplify ongoing conflicts. Most recently, Turkey has intervened in the Libyan Civil War as part of their maritime strategy. In 2019, the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) was on the verge of defeat by General Haftar, an Egyptian backed warlord. Turkey agreed to intervene on behalf of the GNA, and as a result, the GNA signed a maritime treaty which would extend an EEZ corridor between Libya and Turkey. The problem being, according to UNCLOS, Turkey and Libya do not share a maritime boundary. Therefore, this proposed EEZ corridor cuts through Greek and Egyptian EEZs. The map below visualizes these competing claims for the EEZ. Unfortunately for Turkey, no other government recognizes their agreement with the GNA as valid, since it directly contradicts the maritime boundaries established by UNCLOS. However, the importance of Turkey’s claim to this EEZ corridor needs to be emphasized. It is a dramatic move by Turkey to claim territory, and has served to further complicate the already escalating civil war in Libya.
The Eastern Mediterranean is a zero sum game which Turkey is losing on multiple fronts. Without access to the gas and oil reserves shared by Egypt, Cyprus and Greece, Turkey will continue to be left behind on energy access, and “Blue Homeland’ is Turkey’s effort to stay competitive. If realized, “Blue Homeland” would substantially improve Turkey’s position on energy and security. However, the risk of destabilizing the region in the process is very real. The Eastern Mediterranean will likely continue to escalate unless a diplomatic solution can be realized which incorporates Turkish access to oil and gas, and allows a better security posture.