By Giorgia Piantanida

Global warming is a phenomenon that is threatening our modern lifestyles in a multitude of ways; from demolishing our homes all way to increasing social unrest. Higher temperatures have been increasingly linked to high heat indexes, a very worrying statistic for a region like SWANA, which has been experiencing record temperatures in the past years. As scientists look ahead, there are claims that the region could be up to four degrees hotter by 2050, making much of the region unlivable. 

Right now, the fastest growing age group worldwide is that of young people, with some 60 percent of the population under the age of 25. These young people are coming of age in a world that is deteriorating in front of their eyes, and there is little being done by those in charge to slow this momentum. Youth unemployment is immensely high, and the hope for experiencing a better future than the preceding generation is dwindling. Extreme heat is adding to the equation and certainly not helping outlooks.

When we talk about heat and protests, eyes often fall on the protests that erupted across the United States during the 60s, and the more recent BLM summer protests. In both cases, there was a link drawn between the uncomfortable summer heat and the unrest in urban America. While people are not protesting heat, it is a fact that urban riots and protests are mostly documented during the hottest summer months. One explanation could be that higher temperatures have a studied negative effect on levels of comfort, emotions, and ability of decision-making of individuals. While this has not been extended and linked to group behavior, it is important to note that groups are made up of individuals who experience these tensions. 

The link between higher temperatures and unrest has not been unverifiably proven, but studies have shown some important connections. First, warmer cities tend to experience more unrest than cooler cities. Second, data has shown that social disturbances are most common during months of higher temperatures. This relationship is not perfect, but there is a link. Thirdly, temperatures have the largest impact on the occurrence of violence. This shows that warmer weather tends to exacerbate engagement between combatants, though it is not the only trigger.

Global warming is immensely harmful to the environment and wildlife across the globe, but it is also an immense stressor to social and communal structures. The increase of these stressors, with a contemporaneous deterioration of life, may lead people to engage in more protests and unrest. The MENA region is currently heating at a pace that is twice the global average and is not set to slow down at any point in the coming years. If people continue to be left in locations that are physically uninhabitable, it is inevitable that they will protest and demand change from those in charge. If this is to spread across the entire region, similar to what we saw in the Arab Spring uprisings, we may see immense instability across SWANA. The instability there will not remain restricted to the region - as we see with the war with Ukraine today, the impacts will be felt far and wide. 

People in the SWANA region today are facing some of the most drastic and dangerous impacts of climate change and global warming. It is not only their environment and cities that are at risk but the entire system of daily stability. If living conditions are stressed to extreme degrees, it may be that unrest will increase and continue until demands are met. High heat is life-threatening and must be countered. Sometimes, the only recourse citizens have is to take to the streets to have their voices heard.