By Giorgia Piantanida

Climate change and food insecurity are two inextricably linked problems, which are increasingly creating situations of extreme instability throughout the SWANA region. As global temperatures increase, agricultural production will not be as effective or efficient. This will cause outputs to decrease, thereby making it impossible to meet the dietary and nutritional needs of communities. However, food insecurity throughout the region is also being exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, putting further stress on the region and its ability to ensure access to food for all. The region faces immense stress, a situation that does not seem likely to ease in the future. 

Food and the SWANA Region

The SWANA region is already the aridest region in the world, making it inherently difficult to cultivate crops and ensure a steady supply of food from within the region. Further, we have already seen what can happen in the region when access to food is cut off - the Arab Uprisings in 2011 were in large part traced back to food price crises that made it impossible for locals to access proper food supplies. The situation is not improving in recent years, as we see an increase in global temperatures and arid landscapes. 

The War in Ukraine

Ukraine and Russia are integral players in the world’s agricultural markets. The ongoing war has made their agricultural exports decrease substantially, having a downwind effect on the food access and security of the world. One area that was particularly hard hit was the SWANA region, which relies on the global food market to sustain its demand. The price shocks that occurred due to the war, coupled with the remnants of price shocks from the pandemic, are creating an unstable situation that threatens the food security of the entire region.

Countries that import directly from Russia and Ukraine are seeing immense price hikes because the imports are no longer accessible or are nearly impossible to get. However, countries that do not import are also experiencing price shocks because of fuel price increases and a decrease in fertilizers. Food insecurity is already impacting one out of three inhabitants of the SWANA region, and these conditions will only go on to exacerbate the crisis. The longer the war goes on, the higher the risk of widespread food insecurity becomes. 

Egypt

Currently, Egypt is the country most at risk of instability as it is the world’s largest wheat importer. The government has reacted by putting caps on the prices of bread, as well as bread subsidies. The Egyptian government and its neighbors recall previous hunger riots that rocked the country and are working to avoid that through deposits and investments, but this can only be a temporary solution. In the long term, the only solution will be to create a system that allows Egypt and its neighbors to cultivate food locally, in sustainable ways. 

Moving Forward

If the climate crisis were not enough, the recent war in Ukraine has been steadily exacerbating the problems that have been plaguing the SWANA region. Food insecurity is an immensely important problem because food is a vital life force - if there is no access to food, then people cannot survive. As the war progresses and climate change continues to grow stronger, it is important that we take the necessary time to recognize the weight of the problem and seek solutions that will be effective and durable in the long term. All people have an inherent right to food, and as this right begins to be eroded, more studies and recognition of the problem must begin.