The Dawn of a New SWANA Region

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Written By Al Fusaic

By Ruhama Bekele

INTRO

Over the past 15 years, the South West Asia and North Africa (SWANA) region has been marked by political upheaval, humanitarian crises, and ongoing conflicts, shaping its reputation as a region of instability. However, in the past year, fundamental shifts in regional power dynamics have altered the landscape. Notable leaders, such as Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar, have been assassinated, significantly weakening their respective organizations. Iran, facing a direct challenge to its sovereignty following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, has responded with limited direct attacks on Israel under its 'strategic patience' doctrine. In contrast, despite Israel’s military successes against Hamas and Hezbollah, it has ultimately failed to achieve its strategic objectives, as Hamas continues to operate in Gaza and Hezbollah remains entrenched in Lebanon.

The evolving power dynamics in the SWANA Region have given rise to a new order, where Israel has solidified its position as the undisputed hegemon in the region. This shift, while reinforcing Israel’s military and political dominance, has also sparked complex repercussions. Israel’s newfound supremacy has allowed it to set the terms of ceasefire agreements with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, often using its leverage to dictate conditions that favor its strategic interests. However, in doing so, Israel has simultaneously disregarded its commitments under these agreements, undermining the trust necessary for lasting peace and stability in the region.

Although these regional developments have the potential to fundamentally reshape the SWANA region, the most significant shift in power dynamics didn’t occur within the SWANA region itself. It instead took place in Washington, where the election of a new president set the course for U.S. foreign policy in the region. And at the heart of this new policy was one man: Donald Trump. Since the election of Donald Trump in November 2024, a series of pivotal events have unfolded across the SWANA region, reshaping the geopolitical landscape and influencing the region's future trajectory.

Timeline

Lebanon: On November 27, Hezbollah and Israel reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement, stipulating the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanese villages and Hezbollah's pullback to positions behind the Litani River.

 Despite the ceasefire ending major hostilities between the two, there have been many violations of the ceasefire agreement. For instance, Israel has not withdrawn its troops from the majority of the villages it occupies and has killed 22 Lebanese in southern Lebanon. Further, Israel has unilaterally extended the deadline to withdraw to February 18th while accusing the Lebanese army of not adhering to the ceasefire conditions.

Syria: On December 8, rebels from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) successfully overthrew Bashar al-Assad's government, marking the end of the Assad family's 53-year rule as Bashar fled to Russia.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of HTS and de facto leader of Syria, was chosen as the president of the transitional ruling council on January 28, solidifying him as the interim president. Al-Sharaa, known by his nom de guerre Mohammad al-Golani, previously led Al-Nusra Front, a branch of Al Qaeda, casting doubts about his intentions for Syria’s future.

Israel: On January 19, Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas. The ceasefire follows a three-stage framework in which Israel exchanges Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons for Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

The framework follows the same deal offered to Israel since May 2024, raising questions about the timing of Israel's acceptance of the agreement. The Jewish state’s acceptance, just a day before President Trump’s inauguration, can be seen as a 'gift in good faith' to fulfill his campaign promises, in exchange for his good grace. On February 4, President Trump called for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and U.S. ownership of the strip.

Egypt and Jordan: On January 26, President Trump suggested that Egypt and Jordan should take in Palestinian refugees to “clean out” Gaza.

Both states and other countries within the Arab League rejected and condemned the idea. Following this, Trump subtly threatened Egypt and Jordan, implying that foreign aid would be conditioned on their willingness to accept Palestinians.

Palestine: Shortly after President Trump’s ethnic cleansing proposal, Hamas and the Palestine Authority both condemned the relocation of Palestinians with Hamas saying the plan would “put oil on the fire” in the region.

Palestinian citizens have also soundly rejected the proposal while the U.N. and the international community issued a warning of forced displacement and “any form of ethnic cleansing”.

Iran: On February 5, Trump reversed his approach toward Iran by calling for negotiations to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while simultaneously reinstating his maximum pressure campaign.

President Trump’s approach is complicated by his plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza, which has been strongly condemned by Iran. Additionally, the suspicion of collusion between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may make Iran hesitant to accept the terms of a Trump-backed nuclear deal. Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic has been significantly weakened over the past year and is not in a strong position to negotiate the terms of any potential agreement.

Sources

Al Fusaic
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