By Alex Doyle

Israel and Lebanon are engaged in negotiations regarding their maritime border in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Talks have been ongoing for two years and are reportedly reaching their “final stages,” according to Lebanese President Aoun.

History of the Agreement

The UN Convention of the Law and the Sea (UNCLOS) set the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border at Line 23 and Line 1 (depicted in the diagram below) in 1892. After a United States-sanctioned survey found gas reserves off the Mediterranean coast, Lebanon challenged the agreement. US mediator Frederic Hof brought both sides to an agreement in 2012, establishing the Hof Line as the new border. However, the Lebanese government failed to approve the proposal, and, after a period of tension, negotiations resumed in 2020. During the early stages of talks, Lebanon presented a series of new studies that supported their claim up to Line 29, which would give Lebanon an additional 898 square miles; however, they did not amend their UNCLOS filing. Within this additional territory is the Karish gas field, a significant point of contention in the ongoing talks. While the Karish field is within Israeli territory according to the agreement in place, Lebanon’s new claims would put the field in disputed territory. To complicate matters, Energean, the company licensed by Israel to extract gas in the Karish field, has plans to begin extraction “imminently”. 

Threats by Hezbollah

Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed terrorist organization in Lebanon has threatened strikes on the Karish gas field if Israel continues with plans to extract gas without a deal in place. While the area Energean plans to continue work is not part of the Lebanese claim, Hezbollah sent three drones towards the field in July which were intercepted by Israeli forces. Hezbollah is engaging in brinkmanship unlike its more recent, subdued approach to Israel. While Hezbollah no doubt poses a threat, tensions between the two countries ultimately stem from a disconnect in motivations to reach a new agreement; Lebanon views the situation as an economic issue while Israel views it as one of security.

In the Homestretch

United States mediator Amos Hochstein has proposed an agreement that both Israel and Lebanon seem keen to accept. As outlined in his proposal, Israel would maintain rights to the Karish field while Lebanon would gain the South Saida Prospect, also known as the Qana field. Israel and Lebanon are under immense pressure to reach a deal by external and internal stressors. The nations have upcoming elections in November and October, respectively, which threaten to uproot the entire agreement. Israel is currently under a caretaker cabinet known for being weak, while Lebanese politicians are vying for recognition; a move which resulted in the unfinished 2012 deal. Additionally, the Lebanese government is in desperate need of financial stimulus in wake of the country’s ongoing financial crisis; a gas field would provide much-needed economic support.