By Gray Farris

The debate over who claims the Western Sahara territory has persisted for decades. Following increased conflict between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front in November of 2020, the global dynamics surrounding this conflict have grown increasingly complicated. Most recently on December 10th, the Trump Administration announced that the United States supports Morocco’s claim over the territory; a statement with broad implications for the MENA region given the United States’ strategic economic and political relationships. 

Recognition of a states’ government on the international stage generally relies on majority rule. However, there is rarely a perfect mathematical outcome to attaining widespread recognition, and the question of who governs Western Sahara is no exception. The United States’ support of Morocco counters most other nations that have historically backed the Polisario Front, and also somewhat counters the United Nations' peacekeeping mission; which seeks to find a mutual agreement between both parties with emphasis on the Western Saharan people’s right to self-determination. 

The United Nations has historically been the largest international entity vying for a peaceful resolution between Morocco and the Western Sahara. It has maintained that its peacekeeping efforts will remain despite the recent developments and announcements. This begs the question of why the United States has weighed in so strongly, when the United Nations has maintained its ceasefire-driven standpoint. The answer lies with Israel. 

On the same day as Trump’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara, Morocco announced its intention to normalize relations with longtime US ally, Israel. These developments come in an era when several Middle Eastern, North African, and Arab states are normalizing ties with Israel following previously hostile relationships. Through Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain’s normalization with Israel, it is apparent that these evolving relationships are driven by strategic mutual benefit. For Sudan, normalizing ties with Israel was a means to be removed from the US’s state sponsored terrorism list. The United Arab Emirates received arms in response to their normalized relationship with Israel, and Bahrain seeks protection from Iran through its Israeli allyship. Morocco has likely followed suit in this by normalizing their relationship with Israel, and in return, gaining affirmation from the United States of its desired sovereignty over Western Sahara .

The United States’ announcement further complicates the tense circumstances surrounding the conflict. The news can be seen as a loss for the Polisario Front, but may be part of a new avenue for advancing broader peace. Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the UAE’s shift to normalizing ties with Israel after eras of hostility holds potential to put the region on a more unified road ahead. Alternatively, there is potential for increased peace as the Polisario Front’s goal. An independent Western Saharan state would also be a significant shift from the previous decades of ongoing conflict. While there are several perspectives and potential routes to conflict mitigation, the United States’ support for Morocco coinciding with Morocco’s announcement to normalize ties with Israel holds substantial weight in shaping the global response to the Western Sahara conflict and in Israel’s evolving position in the MENA region.