The Western Sahara Dispute: Beyond the Ceasefire

By Laura Robinson

After nearly a nearly three-decade-long ceasefire, the dispute over the non-self-governing Western Sahara territory has seen new developments in recent weeks. The conflict’s origin dates back to 1975, when the territory was claimed by both the Kingdom of Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front. 

The Western Sahara land itself is sparsely populated with about 652,271 residents in a space roughly the same size of Colorado; but is well-connected across nations and continents with regular flight routes between the principal Western Saharan city of Laayoune and Casablanca, Morocco, Nuakchott, Mauritania, and Las Palmas, Gran Canaria. Parts of the territory are also phosphate-rich, which has been a lucrative export and a regional draw to the area. However, throughout the many decades of conflict and drought, the abundant phosphate along with many essential natural resources have been significantly depleted. As one of Africa’s longest enduring disputes, the Western Sahara debate is one that continues to be shaped by a range of international entities and governments. A look at the dispute’s past and the current responses across the global stage may inform the territory’s imminent next steps in mitigation or further escalation.

The Dispute’s History

For over a hundred years, Western Sahara has seen a broad range of international presences. The territory was known as the “Spanish Sahara” after Spanish occupation in 1884, when struggle ensued between France and Spain’s colonization efforts and the territory’s indigenous Sahrawi population. In 1957, one year after their own independence, Morocco claimed control of the Western Sahara and regional conflict progressed. Following pressure from the territory’s neighbors to the North (Morocco) and South (Mauritania), Spain relinquished control and divided its occupancy of the territory. The northern two-thirds of the territory were deemed Moroccan territory and the southern one-third was delegated as Mauritanian. Control was dispersed despite a ruling from the International World Court which recognized Morocco and Mauritania’s historical ties to the territory, yet saw no basis for legal claim to the territory beyond the Sahrawi’s own right to self determination. 

Mauritania reached a peace agreement with the Polisario Front’s leadership entity, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), in 1978, exiting the conflict and leaving their claim over the southern portion of the territory to Moroccan annexation. Sporadic conflict continued between Moroccan forces and the Polisario Front. In 1988, a UN Peace Proposal and referendum was initiated for the indigenous Sahrawi people to vote on whether to officially become part of Morocco, or to be an independent nation under Polisario Front leadership. While this Sahrawi referendum-led decision did not come to fruition due to disputes over voting eligibility, the initiative did lead to a Peacekeeping Mission and formal ceasefire which was agreed upon by all parties and took effect in 1991.

The Dispute’s Present

Most recently, on November 13, 2020, the SADR President signed a decree to officially end the 29-year ceasefire with Morocco. This follows a Moroccan operation to reopen a road in Guerguerat, which connects Moroccan-controlled areas of the territory to neighboring Mauritania. Morocco maintains that this order was a way to process traffic in response to Polisario-driven blockades and that it remains committed to the ceasefire; whereas the Polisario Front holds that the blockade was the result of civilian protests, and that any military presence in the border-area, previously regarded as a “buffer zone”, would be seen as an act of aggression and a violation of the ceasefire’s terms. 

In the two weeks since this development, conversations of the territory’s governing systems and autonomy have now turned to discussions of crisis management. A wide span of nations and international entities have voiced concern about potential increased escalation in the dispute. Algeria, the Polisario Front’s primary backer, has called upon both parties to mutually “show a sense of responsibility and restraint” in light of the recent escalations. The UN Secretary General has expressed “grave concern regarding the possible consequences of the latest developments”, and another UN spokesperson assures that the UN and the Peacekeeping Mission remain committed to “removing obstacles to the resumption of the political process” as mandated in the 1991 Peacekeeping Mission. 

Following these developments, several international human rights organizations have also pushed for necessary aid for the increasing number of displaced Sahrawi refugees. Estimates of over 100,000 Sahrawi refugees’ livelihoods have been constrained to remote refugee camps in Algeria’s Tindouf province due to displacement amid the enduring conflict. The coming weeks will likely be critical in elucidating the next steps in this dispute and the evolving state of the ceasefire and peacekeeping agreement.