Al Fusaic

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UAE-Israel Normalization

Al Fusaic

By Abbi North

The normalization of diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Israel was finalized and signed into writing at the White House on 15 September 2020. The so-called ‘Abraham Accords’ include bilateral agreements across several areas including trade, aviation, and energy. 

Under the deal, the UAE recognizes Israeli State sovereignty in exchange for the suspension of annexation plans of portions of the West Bank. The deal represents a significant policy reversal from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has increasingly faced pressure to show political flexibility both domestically and towards the possibility of a post-Trump Washington. The pact’s brokerage by the United States was likewise a political gesture by the Trump Administration to leverage a foreign policy ‘win’ for the November election, especially as the US continues to pull out of the region. 

Although not the first Arab country to initiate diplomatic normalization with Israel (Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994), the Abraham Agreement proves to be less symbolic. The initial announcement of the Accord on 13 August is rooted in the often discreet historical exchange of commerce and technology between the two countries. The deal bolsters the transparent partnership of Israeli intelligence and UAE business; in many respects a formalization, rather than a normalization, of financial and security strategy. Regarded as the ‘Start-Up Nation’ by Facebook, Israel attracts 16 percent of the world’s total cybersecurity investments  (as of 2017), over $800 million in financial capital, while housing more than 400 active cybersecurity companies and 362 AI startups. Militarized cyber innovation, with customers like the UAE and the US, is made possible in large part through the Palestinian occupation, which has slowly transformed into the most monitored, controlled, and militarized place on earth (Halper, 2015). 

If fulfilled, the pact holds the potential to shape the broader regional political landscape. In the wake of the Trump Administration’s rejection of the Iran nuclear deal, the deal signifies UAE support of a Saudi-led and US-sponsored coalition against Iran. The shift in Netanyahu’s annexation policy is a small and likely temporary sacrifice to make for Gulf securitization assurance against apprehension over Iranian nuclear escalation. For the UAE, Israeli diplomacy offers potential security against Islamic radicalism, a perceived threat in conservative regimes unsettled by the Arab spring.

Crucially, the deal constitutes a break from the 2002 Arab Initiative, assembled at the height of the violence of the second intifada. The Saudi-brokered peace initiative collectively asserts an end to the Palestine occupation as a contingency for Israeli recognition. As a result, UAE normalization marks a significant betrayal of Palestinian interests, with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas explicitly denouncing the plan alongside Hamas and Turkish representatives. While Trump has vowed that the deal will push stalled peace negotiations with Palestinian leadership, the Accord, without even a gesture towards Palestinian sovereignty, is more likely to reinforce resistance. This absence reflects a larger worrisome trend of the decreasing momentum of the Palestinian cause in Arab countries’ politics, compounded by the refusal of the Arab League to rebuke the deal. 

While the UAE is using the accords to take credit for preventing further Palestinian annexation, only time will tell the full effect of the Accord on the Israel-Palestine Conflict and how the terms materialize beyond annexation, but it is safe to say that US President-elect Joe Biden’s win in November will likely play a pivotal role in contouring its realization. While Biden is unlikely to reverse major Trump policies, such as the location of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, he is likely to deviate by restoring Palestinian economic assistance and asserting more hesitation towards Saudi Arabia.

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