Water and War: Survival Amid Scarcity in Jordan

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Written By Al Fusaic

By Ruhama Bekele

INTRO

Water security is a critical global issue, with climate change intensifying shortages and straining international relations. Without enforceable water-sharing agreements, upstream nations can control water flow, as seen in Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam disputes. Jordan, a vulnerable downstream state, faces limited water access and heightened demand from its large refugee population. This study explores how these factors shape Jordan’s water crisis and considers diplomatic and policy strategies to secure resources and maintain regional stability.

Water Crisis Overview

Jordan faces a critical water scarcity issue, with an annual per capita availability of only about 90 cubic meters per capita—well below the United Nations' benchmark of 500 cubic meters per person for "absolute water scarcity." This situation is exacerbated by Jordan's geographical location and its strained relations with neighboring countries. Additionally, the influx of refugees, particularly from Syria, has heightened water demand in already water-scarce areas, further straining Jordan's infrastructure and worsening water shortages.

Jordan’s Water Resources

According to the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) (2015), “Jordan consists of 15 surface water basins and 12 groundwater basins”. The surface water resources include lakes such as the Sea of Galilee and rivers such as the Jordan River while groundwater resources include aquifers such as the Disi aquifer near the Jordan-Saudi border. These two types of water resources make up about 86% of Jordan’s water resources as surface water accounts for 27% and groundwater for the other 59%. Additionally, 40% of total water resources available to Jordan are shared with neighboring countries such as Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

Refugee Influx and Population Growth

Jordan hosts an estimated 3 million refugees, including both registered and unregistered individuals from Palestine, Iraq, and Syria, which has placed a substantial strain on its limited water supply. The increased demand has led to over-extraction from groundwater aquifers, accelerating depletion rates and diminishing long-term water availability. Despite these challenges, the refugee presence has brought some positive effects, including increased international aid directed toward water infrastructure and conservation projects. Additionally, new initiatives have emerged to improve water infrastructure and desalination, partly funded by international organizations in response to the heightened demand, which may contribute to a more sustainable water future for Jordan.

Geopolitical Challenges

Israel: Jordan shares water resources with Israel, notably the Jordan River. While both countries have agreed on water allocations in their peace treaty, fluctuating regional politics and water

scarcity complicate consistent access. Israel controls much of the upstream flow, impacting Jordan's supply and often leaving it reliant on diplomatic agreements to secure its share

Syria: Jordan faces significant water challenges due to Syria's upstream diversion of water from the Yarmouk River, a crucial source for Jordan. With Syria’s own water needs increasing, especially due to internal conflict and population pressures, Jordan’s access to the Yarmouk has been severely reduced, intensifying its water scarcity issues

Saudi Arabia: Jordan shares several groundwater aquifers with Saudi Arabia, but overextraction on both sides has stressed these resources. Saudi Arabia's extensive agricultural projects draw heavily from these shared aquifers, limiting Jordan’s access and exacerbating the depletion of a critical water source in the region.

Refugees and Water

The influx of refugees in Jordan, particularly from Syria, has led to a 30-40% increase in water demand, placing immense pressure on the country’s already scarce water resources. This sudden demand spike has accelerated the depletion of aquifers and intensified competition for water in urban and rural areas alike. Additionally, cultural differences between Syrians and Jordanians, such as water usage habits and agricultural practices, have sometimes led to tensions and misunderstandings in communities already struggling with limited resources. The rapid population growth from refugees has therefore compounded Jordan’s water crisis, pushing its infrastructure to its limits.

Overconsumption, Theft, and Infrastructure

Jordan's decreasing water supply is exacerbated by several critical issues, including the overconsumption of water for agricultural purposes, which accounts for approximately 50% of the country's water supply. Agriculture, while vital for food security, often consumes a disproportionate amount of water while contributing little to the country’s GDP. Additionally, water theft is a prevalent problem, with unauthorized extraction contributing to the already strained water systems. Poor infrastructure also plays a significant role, as outdated and inefficient water delivery systems result in substantial losses through leaks and mismanagement. Together, these factors compound Jordan's water crisis, making it increasingly difficult to meet the demands of its growing population and refugee influx.

The Red-Dead Conveyance Project

The Red Sea-Dead Sea Conveyance project is a joint effort by Jordan and Israel to address Jordan’s water scarcity and help restore the shrinking Dead Sea through desalination and hydroelectric power from water in the Red Sea. Despite its promise, the project faces significant obstacles, including environmental concerns, high financial costs, and complex negotiations that involve securing agreements from multiple stakeholders. The project has been delayed for years due to political tensions, including stalled Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and incidents like the 2017 killing of two Jordanians by an Israeli security guard in Amman. These diplomatic challenges are critical, as cooperation is essential to the project’s success and long-term sustainability.

The Gaza War and its Effects

The Gaza war has significantly impacted Jordan's already critical water situation by increasing the number of Palestinian refugees seeking safety and support within its borders. This influx places additional pressure on Jordan’s limited water resources, which are already strained by the existing refugee populations from Syria and Iraq. Moreover, the ongoing violence disrupts regional cooperation on water management and resource sharing, as neighboring countries prioritize immediate security concerns over collaborative solutions. The conflict can also divert international aid away from Jordan’s pressing needs, hindering its efforts to improve water infrastructure and management. Ultimately, the Gaza war exacerbates Jordan’s water crisis, complicating its ability to meet the demands of a growing population amidst regional instability.

The Future of Jordan’s Refugee Policy

Jordan’s reliance on international aid to support its refugee population has become a critical factor in its ongoing willingness to host large numbers of displaced people. This "rent" in the form of aid helps Jordan manage the strain that increased water demand and infrastructure use place on the country, alleviating some of the financial and resource burdens. However, should this aid decrease or fail to meet the rising costs associated with refugee support, Jordan may be forced to reconsider its open-door policy. The possibility of closing its doors to future refugees remains a contentious issue, as doing so could bring relief to Jordan's limited resources but might also affect its international standing and the flow of crucial financial support.

The Future of Jordan’s Water Policy

While the severe water scarcity in Jordan and neighboring countries has heightened tensions, the likelihood of Jordan engaging in armed conflict over water resources remains low. Shared water sources like the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers are critical for all parties involved, and Jordan has historically prioritized diplomatic channels to address disputes. The potential for water-related conflicts exists, particularly as each nation faces its own challenges, but Jordan is more likely to seek cooperative agreements and international mediation rather than resorting to war. This emphasis on diplomacy reflects Jordan's understanding that collaboration is essential in navigating the region's complex water challenges, aiming to maintain stability in an already fragile geopolitical landscape

Bibliography

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