Afghanistan’s Potential Spillover to the MENA Region

By Sabrina Pecorelli

The American troop withdrawals from Afghanistan set a dangerous precedent of unpredictable U.S. foreign policy, especially toward previously designated allies. Moreover, the swift Taliban takeover and subsequent declaration of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” will have unparalleled consequences to the existing groups of the MENA Region, inspiring other armed groups to follow in their footsteps and antagonizing their rivals to rise up against them.

Who is the Taliban and how did it seize power?

The Taliban is a predominantly Pashtun, Sunni Islamist terrorist organization created by the former Afghan resistance fighters that fought against the Soviet invasion in the 1980s. The group’s goal was to remove all foreign influence in the country and establish a government with their version of strict Islamic (Sharia) law. The Taliban officially ruled Afghanistan from 1996 until the U.S. invasion in 2001, following the terrorist attacks of September 11th.

Although the Taliban was not directly responsible for the attacks, the group did provide the actual perpetrators- Al Qaeda (AQ)- with a safe haven for their operations. Consequently, American and allied forces invaded Afghanistan to stop this cooperation and to hunt down Osama bin Laden, the leader of AQ and mastermind behind the attacks.

In the 20 years since, the Taliban has waged an armed insurgency against the U.S.-backed Afghan government, carrying out attacks against civilians and striving to regain its footing. However, in early 2020, the United States government entered into a peace negotiation with the Taliban to try and bring peace to Afghanistan.

The agreement stated that the U.S. government would initially reduce its military presence in the country and eventually withdraw all forces. In return, the Taliban would not allow its members (or other organizations, including Al Qaeda) to “use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies”. Following these initial requirements, the Taliban engaged in talks with the Afghan government in late 2020 to negotiate for a ceasefire but the process stalled and never resumed.

Subsequently, in 2021, when the American forces began withdrawing, the Taliban stepped up its offensive and began conquering more territory, often unopposed. On August 15th, the government collapsed when Afghan president Ashraf Ghani fled the country and the Taliban seized control of the capital of Kabul.

What does this mean for Afghanistan?

First and foremost, there are some imminent concerns about the safety and security of the Afghan population now that the Taliban is in charge. The group’s strict rule threatens democratic institutions, as well as human rights in the country. Women fear they will lose out on the 20 years of progress they have made fighting for their rights and will be forced to regress back to a time where girls were not educated and could not leave the house.

The Taliban’s official statements say that they will not punish women or take away their rights and that they are allowed to do everything ‘within the bounds of Islamic law’. That last phrase was used frequently during the Taliban’s rule in the 1990s, justifying closing down girl’s schools and denying women’s employment. Although the Taliban says things will be different now, most people are still skeptical.

There are concerns that the Taliban will enforce brutal corporal punishments that they associate with Islamic law, like cutting off the hand of a thief or stoning women for infidelity. This may be more common in the outer rural provinces away from the media.

In terms of governance, the organization’s power is greater now than ever before, controlling large amounts of territory with access to vast deposits of natural resources, as well as 83 million people residing in the country. No other group has been able to accomplish a takeover of this magnitude, not even ISIS when it controlled parts of Syria and Iraq in 2015.

What are the foreign policy implications for the United States?

The American withdrawal highlighted some major issues in U.S. foreign policy, but it especially showed what an unreliable ally the United States is. This is not the first time that the United States suddenly withdraws its forces and leaves its regional allies to scramble.

In late 2019, President Donald Trump ordered the drawdown of troops in northern Syria, abandoning their longtime allies and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Kurds, who are trained and backed by the U.S. government, were a key force in fighting the oppressive regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad as well as dismantling the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

When the Americans withdrew, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out a military incursion into northern Syria to fight the SDF, which Turkey deems a terrorist organization due to its ties to the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK). Since the Kurdish forces lacked American support, they were unable to simultaneously fight against the incursion and monitor the prisons that held former ISIS fighters, leading to hundreds of detainees escaping.

So, the American withdrawals indirectly caused more issues than previously thought and the current situation in Afghanistan is a close resemblance to that. It also reinforced this idea that America only looks out for itself and will not hesitate to abandon its allies if it serves its national interests. This may be one of the only patterns in an increasingly unpredictable American foreign policy.

How will this affect extremist groups in the Middle East and North Africa?

Even though the Taliban has only been in power for a short time, the group’s successful occupation of Afghanistan has already affected extremist organizations in the MENA Region and around the world. Although their swift takeover has received praise from other extremist groups, it has also pushed their competitors to take violent measures against them- creating a dangerous paradox of inspiring their allies and antagonizing their rivals.

On one hand, many organizations saw the Taliban’s actions as an inspiring win against the United States, considering the group had lost power two decades ago and waited patiently for an American withdrawal. The Taliban’s conquest was showered with praise on social media platforms like Twitter, where supporters from other jihadist groups or extremist factions glorified its victory as one for ‘the Muslims’, ‘the Sunnis’, and ‘all the oppressed’. Al Qaeda affiliates relished in their allies’ triumph and considered it a “revival of Osama bin Laden’s jihad”.

So, the Taliban’s success may have set a dangerous precedent for other extremist groups to follow in its footsteps. When the leader of Hamas congratulated the head of the Taliban, he suggested that this was only the beginning “to the demise of all occupation forces” as he referred to the Israeli occupation of Palestine.

Multiple other organizations also saw the Taliban’s victory as a motivation to not give up on their own goals, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. These groups could use the situation in Afghanistan to strengthen the operations in their respective countries in the hopes of following the Taliban’s footsteps.

However, not all groups supported the Taliban’s takeover, and those that consider the Taliban their adversary were quick to show their dismay. The biggest example of this was the terrorist attack perpetrated by ISIS-K outside the Kabul airport.

ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) is an affiliate of the Islamic State that was focused on Afghanistan and Pakistan. The founding members of ISIS-K included disillusioned Taliban militants who pledged their allegiance to the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in 2015. Due to the ideological differences and overlap in the territory with the Taliban, the two organizations have been fierce rivals for the past six years.

ISIS-K claimed responsibility for the suicide bombings that took place outside Kabul airport on August 25th, 2021 where over 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. military personnel tragically lost their lives. In retaliation, President Biden ordered an airstrike against a suspected suicide bomber near the airport but ended up killing 10 civilians as collateral damage.

In this case, the Taliban’s illegitimate rise to power enabled one of its most dangerous competitors to escalate their rivalry and instigate more violence, which propelled the United States to retaliate and shed more innocent blood. This feud between ISIS-K and the Taliban may have horrific consequences for the people of Afghanistan, as both sides will continue to clash at the expense of civilian lives.

So, what now?

Now, as American forces have finally withdrawn from Afghanistan after a 20-year occupation, the international community is anxiously waiting to see the Taliban’s next moves. In order to run the country, the group will have to maintain control of a wide range of areas from civil society to the economy. The United Nations, as well as most other human rights organizations, will be closely monitoring the situation on the ground, especially surrounding women’s rights.

Additionally, experts have warned against more terrorist attacks from ISIS-K in Afghanistan, as the group continues its battle against the Taliban. Although ISIS-K only has an estimate of 3,000 fighters in the country, their rivalry may escalate into a full-on domestic conflict. There have also been reports of small groups forming as a resistance to the Taliban, which could also fuel the beginning of a civil war.

In terms of diplomatic ties, some countries are considering normalizing relations with the so-called “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” but that in itself will set unpredictable precedents for legitimizing hostile governments in the future. In late July, before the official takeover, the Chinese Foreign Minister met with the Taliban leader to “demonstrate goodwill” and ensure the Taliban would not support any anti-China extremist groups. Although nothing official has happened since it did set a tone for other countries considering the legitimization of ties.

Other insurgent jihadist groups that have similar hopes of taking over their countries’ governments, like Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis, will feel exceptionally motivated if the Taliban succeeds in gaining international recognition, or at least that of a superpower. This could enable a domino effect of terrorist takeovers, which would have dreadful implications for the MENA Region and the rest of the world.

Overall, the situation in Afghanistan is a tragic culmination of decades of instability and violence, enabled by the American presence and worsened by the organizations that thrived in the chaos. The U.S. withdrawal might have ended its longest war, but it also might have started something worse- that we will be unfolding for decades to come.